Source: PUBLIC AFFAIRS - American Embassy
Sylvie VACHERET Tel: 01 43 12 29 28 E Mail: vacheretsr@state.gov
Voir aussi Crise 2007-2008
et Conjoncture economique US debut 2008
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Taking Responsible Action to Keep Our Economy Growing
White House - Fact Sheet - March 7, 2008
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/03/20080307.html
“The U.S. economy is structurally sound for the long term, but growth has slowed… The President and his Administration are taking action to address economic uncertainties and to keep our economy growing.”
Daniel Griswold
Worried about a Recession? Don’t Blame Free Trade
Cato Institute - Free Trade Bulletin No. 34 - March 31, 2008
http://www.freetrade.org/node/856
“If the past is any guide, politicians on the campaign trail will be tempted to blame trade and globalization for the passing pain of the business cycle. Rising unemployment and falling output can provide fertile ground for attacks on imports and foreign investment by U.S. multinational companies. But an analysis of previous recessions and expansions shows that international trade and investment are not to blame for downturns in the economy and may in fact be moderating the business cycle.”
Addressing the Foreclosure Crisis: A Hamilton Project Policy Discussion
The Brookings Institution - Discussion - March 14, 2008 – 72 pages
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0314_mortgage/20080314_mortgage.pdf
With house prices down, many Americans now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – a problem referred to as “negative equity.” In addition, interest rate resets on select subprime and traditional loans will result in even higher mortgage payments for many families already struggling to make ends meet. The results of these conditions are already apparent, with foreclosures in January 2008 up 57 percent from the year before. Without new and effective public policy, some experts project that 2 million families will lose their homes during the next two years – an outcome that would hurt communities while causing broader collateral damage for the economy, jobs and wages.
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MONETARY POLICY
Kevin Hassett
How the Fed Works
The American – September/October 2007 issue
http://www.american.com/archive/2007/september-october-magazine-contents/how-the-fed-works
Kevin Hassett, a former Fed economist, offers an inside look at how America’s central bankers operate.
Charles I. Plosser
The Benefits of Systematic Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Report - March 3, 2008 – 14 pages
“The benefits of operating in an environment with the transparency afforded by simple rules is that it gives monetary policymakers the ability to anchor expectations and affords them the opportunity to temporarily deviate from the simple rules in extraordinary circumstances without eroding central bank credibility.”
Todd E. Clark and Taisuke Nakata
Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review – First Quarter 2008 – 34 pages
http://www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q08Clark.pdf
“From 1975 to 1980, inflation in core (nonfood and nonenergy) consumer prices rose sharply as crude oil prices more than tripled. Yet, as crude oil prices quadrupled from late 2001 to 2007, core consumer price inflation remained essentially flat. Some observers have attributed the stability of consumer price inflation in the more recent episode to the influence of long-term inflation expectations. While inflation expectations rose significantly in the second half of the 1970s, they remained largely unchanged from 2001 through 2007. The increased stability of inflation and long-term expectations raises the possibility that the behavior of both variables has fundamentally changed.”
Vincent R. Reinhart, Carmen M. Reinhart
Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence
National Bureau of Economic Research – Research paper - March 2008 - 25 pages
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27668,filter.all/pub_detail.asp
“Over the past decade, policymakers in many emerging market economies have opted to limit fluctuations of the value of their domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. A simple interest-parity relationship is used to identify the potential sources of upward pressure on the value of a foreign exchange rate and to explain the policy options to damp them. The paper then documents the extent to which the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been sterilized and provides a comprehensive list of major policy initiatives related to stemming forces that would otherwise appreciate the exchange rate in over one hundred countries.”
LawrenceH. White
As Good As Gold?
Cato Institute – Cato Policy Report - March/April 2008 - 4 pages
http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/v30n2/cpr30n2-1.pdf
The subprime crisis and the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar have raised questions about the performance of the Federal Reserve Board. One [presidential] candidate has proposed ending the post-1971 experiment with an unanchored fiat dollar issued by the Federal Reserve and returning to a gold standard with private money issue. Critics have raised a number of theoretical and historical objections to the gold standard.. In light of the historical evidence the gold standard is not a crazy idea.
Richard H. Timberlake
Gold Standards and the Real Bills Doctrine in U.S. Monetary Policy
The Independent Review - Winter 2007 – 30 pages
http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_11_03_01_timberlake.pdf
Discounting the differences between the self-regulating classical gold standard that prevailed before World War I and the government-managed gold-exchange standard that replaced it, many writers have erroneously blamed “the gold standard” for the inability of Federal Reserve Board policymakers to implement countercyclical policies in 1929–33 and thus to prevent the Great Depression. Worse, they have failed to identify the true culprit in the monetary system of that era—the fallacious real bills doctrine, which guided Fed policy.
Chinese FX Interventions Caused International Imbalances, Contributed to U.S. Housing Bubble
Joint Economic Committee – Study – March 2008 – 13 pages
“Since 2000, the PRC’s exchange rate policy and the shadow policies of other Asian governments slowed the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and lowered interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve. By distorting market price signals, these policies have exacerbated a number of economic problems not only in the United States but also around the world.”
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FINANCE
Policy Statement on Financial Market Developments
The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets – March 2008 – 22 pages
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/pwgpolicystatemktturmoil_03122008.pdf
“Last August, you called on the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) to review the underlying causes of developing financial market tunnoil.. Our objectives which we believe these recommendations will achieve, are improved transparency and disclosure, better risk awareness and management, and stronger oversight. Collectively, these recommendations will mitigate systemic risk, help restore investor confidence, and facilitate economic growth.”
Thomas M. Hoenig
Maintaining Stability in a Changing Financial System: Some Lessons Relearned Again?
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review – First Quarter 2008 – 12 pages
http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q08Hoenig.pdf
“In a speech made before the High Level Meeting on Regulatory Capital and Issues in Financial Stability in Sydney, Australia, last November, Mr. Hoenig used the recent subprime mortgage crisis to motivate a broader discussion of how we can maintain financial stability in a changing financial system. While the recent crisis has revealed some new and unexpected vulnerabilities in the financial system, it has also highlighted the need to remember some of the lessons we have learned from past crises.”
William Poole
Financial Innovation: Engine of Growth or Source of Instability?
The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis - Report - March 6, 2008
http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2008/03_06_08.html
“Financial innovation, like innovation in other industries, is part of the dynamic process of “creative destruction” that drives market economies forward and raises living standards. My message today is that we should not fear financial innovation, but that we must be careful, both in designing our public policies and in making our personal financial decisions, to understand the lessons of the recent subprime mortgage turmoil and of past innovations that led to instability.”
Adam B. Ashcraft and Til Schuermann
Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Report - March, 2008 – 82 pages
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr318.pdf
The authors provide an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions that arise. Ashcraft and Schuermann discuss the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down. They continue with a complete picture of the subprime borrower and the subprime loan, discussing both predatory borrowing and predatory lending. The authors present the key structural features of a typical subprime securitization, document how rating agencies assign credit ratings to mortgage-backed securities, and outline how these agencies monitor the performance of mortgage pools over time. Throughout the paper, they draw upon the example of a mortgage pool securitized by New Century Financial during 2006.
The State of the Banking Industry
U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs - Hearing - March 4, 2008
“While many experts have commented on the disintermediation of banks within the financial system, we have seen from the subprime crisis, banks remain central players. Even though many banks moved from portfolio lending to the ‘originate-to-distribute’ model, they still have been significantly affected by the subprime mess.”
Governor Randall S. Kroszner
The Importance of Fundamentals in Risk Management
Federal Reserve Board – Remarks at the American Bankers Association - March 11, 2008
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20080311a.htm
“The focus of my remarks today--the importance of fundamentals in risk management--should still resonate with all of you, whether you are part of a large global bank or a smaller community bank. Unfortunately, recent market events have shown us that banking institutions still face some risk management challenges, including a need to refocus on some key fundamentals. The good news, however, is that we also have many examples of sound risk management practices during the recent disruptions.”
Elizabeth S. Laderman
The Quantity and Character of Out-of-Market Small Business Lending
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic Review 2008 – 8p
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/2008/er31-39.pdf
“Most small business lending from banks originates with institutions that have a local branch, but “out-of-market” lending does not. Supporting the view that proximity is conducive to lending, I find that only about 10 percent of small business lending is from banks with no branch in the local market. About half of this appears to be from banks with a branch in the same state, further supporting the role of proximity, while, at the same time, supporting the current regulatory practice of considering out-of-market loans when assessing local competitive conditions. I also find that out-of-market and in-market loans are of similar average size and are about equally likely to be secured by commercial real estate.”
