Rapport sur les fonds souverains
Ministère de l'économie, de l'industrie et de l'emploi
vendredi 13 juin 2008
ECONOMIE ET DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE
Le changement climatique et l’économie
Natalia Tamirisa
On peut faire face au changement climatique sans nuire à la stabilité macroéconomique ni à la croissance, et sans imposer une charge excessive aux pays qui sont les moins en mesure de s’acquitter du coût des mesures. Si celles–ci sont bien conçues, leur coût économique devrait être gérable.
(308 kb fichier pdf)
Réchauffement climatique et agriculture
William R. Cline
Si rien n’est fait pour diminuer les émissions de carbone, la productivité agricole pourrait fortement chuter, surtout dans les pays en développement. Ces pays ont donc grand intérêt à participer activement aux programmes internationaux de réduction des émissions.
(2,000 kb fichier pdf)
Natalia Tamirisa
On peut faire face au changement climatique sans nuire à la stabilité macroéconomique ni à la croissance, et sans imposer une charge excessive aux pays qui sont les moins en mesure de s’acquitter du coût des mesures. Si celles–ci sont bien conçues, leur coût économique devrait être gérable.
(308 kb fichier pdf)
Réchauffement climatique et agriculture
William R. Cline
Si rien n’est fait pour diminuer les émissions de carbone, la productivité agricole pourrait fortement chuter, surtout dans les pays en développement. Ces pays ont donc grand intérêt à participer activement aux programmes internationaux de réduction des émissions.
(2,000 kb fichier pdf)
Le prix du changement climatique
Benjamin Jones, Michael Keen et Jon Strand
Les pouvoirs publics doivent encourager les ménages et les entreprises à combattre le changement climatique et à s’y adapter. Le rôle des instruments budgétaires est indispensable pour atténuer le changement climatique et s’y adapter.
(240 kb fichier pdf)
L’écologisation des marchés
Paul Mills
Comment les marchés financiers réagiront-ils aux initiatives en matière de lutte contre le changement climatique et comment peuvent-ils au mieux promouvoir l’atténuation et l’adaptation? La réponse à ces questions sera cruciale pour établir un plan d’action et réduire son coût au minimum.
(340 kb fichier pdf)
Hausse des températures, hausse des risques
Mohan Munasinghe
Bien que le changement climatique et le développement durable soient des problèmes complexes et liés entre eux qui constituent un défi à relever par l’humanité, on pourrait les résoudre ensemble en intégrant les mesures d’adaptation et d’atténuation dans le cadre plus général des stratégies de développement durable.
(308 kb fichier pdf)
Voir ECOLOGIE
LA CRISE FINANCIERE, VUE PAR LE FMI
| A Crisis of Confidence... and a lot more Laura Kodres What can be done to prevent future crises like the one that began in the U.S. subprime mortgage market? This article argues that the source of the problem lies in incentives. But the remedies may be difficult to implement because faulty incentives are entrenched in the marketplace and in regulatory and supervisory systems. (432 kb, pdf file) Outbreak: U.S. Subprime Contagion Randall Dodd and Paul Mills The authors examine the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and the reasons for its large spillover effects. They suggest policies to deal with such problems should aim to moderate leverage, improve liquidity management, foster market liquidity, promote due diligence, and increase transparency in the public availability of price and trading information. (276 kb, pdf file) Point of View: Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis Khor Hoe Ee and Kee Rui Xiong The authors, from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, examine the current crisis through the lens of the financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997. They discuss lessons industrial countries can take from the Asian crisis and lessons Asian countries can learn from the subprime crisis. They also explore the reasons for Asia's resilience, so far, to the current crisis. (328 kb, pdf file) Banking on More Capital Jaime Caruana and Aditya Narain One reason that banks succumbed to the subprime crisis is that they did not hold adequate amounts of capital. Against that background, the authors discuss the Basel II New Capital Adequacy Framework, suggesting that it does not address all the regulatory issues that arose from the crisis but that it does, nonetheless, have a key role to play. (300 kb, pdf file)
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jeudi 12 juin 2008
MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 2008
MONETARY POLICY
Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies
U.S. Department of the Treasury - May 2008 – 39 pages
http://www.treasury.gov/offices/international-affairs/economic-exchange-rates/052008_report.pdf
The report reviews developments in international economic and exchange rate policies, focusing on the second half of 2007. However, where pertinent and when available, data through mid-April 2008 are included and discussed. The report also includes an appendix updating issues related to Sovereign Wealth Funds. Exports and imports of goods and services to and from the countries whose economies and currencies are discussed accounted for about 85 percent of total U.S. trade in 2007.
FINANCE
Martin Neil Baily, Douglas W. Elmendorf and Robert E. Litan
The Great Credit Squeeze: How It Happened, How to Prevent Another
The Brookings Institution – Paper - May 16, 2008 – 163 pages
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/0516_credit_squeeze/0516_credit_squeeze.pdf
Roundtable discussion - http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/0516_credit.aspx
“The experience of the U.S. financial system and economy during the past year vividly demonstrate the need for reform of our financial regulation and supervision. Financial markets will always experience swings between confidence and fear; between optimism and pessimism. However, effective regulation and supervision can reduce the frequency, the magnitude, and the broader consequences of these swings. […]In the report, the authors examine the origins of the current crisis and recommend specific policy responses to address both the immediate and long-term challenges.”
The Subprime Mortgage Market: National and Twelfth District Developments
FRB San Francisco - 2007 Annual Report – 12 pages
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/annual/2007/subprime.pdf
“Learn about the factors that led to the subprime mortgage crisis, the impact of these developments on the nation and the Twelfth District, and "lessons learned" that may contribute to financial market stability going forward. Find out about the major foreclosure prevention initiative the Community Development department launched in 2007 to understand the impact of the crisis on low- and moderate-income borrowers and neighborhoods and help homeowners in hard-hit communities avoid foreclosure.”
The U.S. Housing Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis: Housing and Housing-Related Finance
Joint Economic Committee – Study – May 2008 - 30 pages
http://www.house.gov/jec/news/Housing%20Bubble%20study.pdf
“A combination of government policy errors and private sector miscalculations and mistakes underlie the inflation and deflation of the housing bubble… The study examines how a combination of government policies fostered a credit expansion that fueled a huge bubble in the U.S. housing market, and how the popping of this bubble destabilized the international financial system.”
Alex J. Pollock
Regulatory Implications of the Housing and Mortgage Bubble and Bust
United States Congress - Joint Economic Committee - Testimony – May 14, 2008 – 8 pages
http://www.house.gov/jec/hearings/testimony/110/5-14-08/Pollock%20Testimony.pdf
“The severe housing and mortgage bust we are experiencing can best be understood as the inevitable deflation of a classic asset bubble. Historically speaking, why do we keep having these financial adventures, no matter what our technological and theoretical progress or regulatory reorganizations? Why is “a prudent banker one who goes broke when everybody else goes broke”? This witty line of Keynes points us to the eternal human elements behind the credit overexpansion that our sophisticated, globalized, computerized, and leveraged markets produced between 2003 and 2006, the subsequent debt panics of 2007 and 2008, and the continuing bust.”
Paul Volcker
Financial Crisis
U.S. Congress - Joint Economic Committee - Testimony – May 14, 2008 – 5 pages
http://www.house.gov/jec/hearings/testimony/110/5-14-08/Volcker%20Testimony.pdf
“I appreciate the opportunity to discuss informally some implications of the systemic risks in the financial system as revealed in the current crisis. This statement will simply point out some of the more important and unresolved issues as I see them. The complications are evident. There are no quick and facile answers. Your deliberations can, however, help lay the groundwork for legislation that will, I believe, be necessary, if not now in the midst of crisis and an election campaign, then in 2009.”
Turmoil and Innovation: A Look at Financial Markets in 2007
FRB Chicago - 2007 Annual Report – April 2008
http://www.chicagofed.org/about_the_fed/2007_annual_report.cfm
“Financial markets have been characterized by significant turmoil since the summer of 2007. Even as this annual report went to press in April of 2008, credit conditions remained tight, and market volatility continued to be high. These market disruptions raise many issues, but one of particular importance to the Federal Reserve System is the appropriate role of public policy in response. As the premier public policy institution for addressing financial stability issues in the U.S., the Fed must understand the underlying causes of financial disruption in order to design an appropriate policy response.”
Liz Laderman
Small Business Lending and Bank Competition
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – Economic Letter - May 9, 2008 – 4 pages
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-15.pdf
“The question of how much bank financing small businesses are able to obtain is of real importance. Indeed, a regard for the volume of lending helps motivate enforcement of antitrust laws in banking. The Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve, which share responsibility for considering the effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on competition in local banking markets, do so, in part, because theory says that more competition generates more lending. The author examines what the data say about the relationship between the degree of competition in small business lending in local geographic banking markets and the total volume of small business lending in those markets.”
Industrial Loan Companies: Commercial businesses face head-on opposition to entering the banking sector
FRB Kansas - Article – Ten - Spring 2008 – 8 pages
http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/TEN/pdf/spring2008/ILCs.pdf
“Current law leaves ILCs as the only option for businesses like Wal-Mart and Home Depot to open a bank, but this possibility causes uproar.”
Edwin M. Truman
The Rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Impacts on US Foreign Policy and Economic Interests
The Brookings Institution - Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs - May 21, 2008 – 14 pages
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/truman0508.pdf
“Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) pose the greatest risks to the citizens of the countries whose governments have accumulated the large stocks of international assets, but authorities in the United States and other countries where those assets are invested also have legitimate concerns about how these funds will be managed.[…] The author concludes that though the potential impacts are disquieting, SWFs do not pose a significant new threat to US foreign policy, national security, and economic interests.”
James K. Jackson
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: An Economic Analysis
Congressional Research Service - Library of Congress – Report - Web posted May 20, 2008 – 6 pages
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RS21857_20080319.pdf
“Foreign direct investment in the United States declined sharply after 2000, when a record $300 billion was invested in U.S. businesses and real estate. In 2006, according to Department of Commerce data, foreigners invested $184 billion. Foreign direct investments are highly sought after by many State and local governments that are struggling to create additional jobs in their regions. While some in Congress encourage such investment to offset the perceived negative economic effects of U.S. firms investing abroad, others are concerned about foreign acquisitions of U.S. firms that are considered essential to U.S. national and economic security.”
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Trade Enforcement Act of 2007
Senate Committee on Finance – Hearing – May 22, 2008
http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/hearing052208.htm
“The administration has many tools to enforce trade agreements and trade remedy laws… But having these rules on the books is not enough. The Government needs to enforce them… USTR can and should do more. And Congress can help USTR to do more by updating its trade enforcement tools. Many of the trade enforcement tools that USTR uses today were created decades ago. Congress created them to address different problems, in a very different world.”
Free Trade Agreements: Promoting Prosperity in 2008
The Heritage Foundation – Paper - May 2, 2008 – 7 pages
http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/upload/bg_2132.pdf
“Freer trade allows more goods and services to reach American consumers at lower prices, giving families more income to save or to spend on other goods and services.[…] This year, Congress has a real opportunity to resist partisanship and help America and the world reap the rewards of free trade policies. It is essential that lawmakers separate myth from fact and assess upcoming trade initiatives objectively—not through the lens of campaign rhetoric. Armed with the facts, they can then help to ensure that prosperity in the U.S. and around the world has a real chance to grow and thrive, both this year and in the years to come.”
Raymond J. Ahearn
U.S.-French Commercial Ties
Congressional Research Service - Library of Congress – Report - Web posted May 14, 2008 – 16 pages
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32459.pdf
“U.S. commercial ties with France are extensive, mutually profitable, and growing. With over $1.2 billion in commercial transactions taking place between the two countries every day of the year, each country has an increasingly large stake in the health and openness of the other’s economy. France is the 9th largest merchandise trading partner for the United States and the United States is France’s largest trading partner outside the European Union. […] While some public opinion polls at the time suggested support for economic boycotts as a way of expressing opposition to France’s position on Iraq, an economic backlash appears not to have materialized. Effective boycotts would jeopardize thousands of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.”
The Economic and National Security Implications of the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement
The Brookings Institution – Event Transcript - May 12, 2008 – 38 pages
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0512_columbiafta/20080512_colombia.pdf
“International trade has grown rapidly in recent decades. Most countries impose tariffs on imports, which protect domestic industries from overseas competition but distort world markets. With jobs and wages under pressure, both global trade talks and bilateral trade agreements have become harder and harder to negotiate. Although a free-trade deal has been negotiated by the United States and Colombia, it still awaits congressional approval. […] On May 12, the Brookings Institution hosted Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Senator Kit Bond (R-Mo.) for a discussion of the economic and national security implications of the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement. ”
U.S.-China Trade: USTR's China Compliance Reports and Plans Could Be Improved
GAO – Report - April 14, 2008 – 64 pages
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-405
“GAO was asked to (1) evaluate USTR’s annual China trade compliance reports to Congress and the degree to which they present information necessary to fully understand China’s compliance situation and (2) examine the status of the plans presented in USTR’s February 2006 top-to-bottom report. GAO systematically analyzed the contents of USTR’s compliance reports from 2002 to 2007 and reviewed information on the status of agencies’ monitoring and enforcement activities.”
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Answering the Critics: Why Large American Gains from Globalization Are Plausible Peterson Institute – Paper – May 2008
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/print.cfm?doc=pub&ResearchID=929
“Hufbauer responds to criticisms of Dani Rodrik and L. Josh Bivens that the Peterson Institute has exaggerated the benefits of globalization in raising US household income and GDP. The estimate published by Hufbauer and his Peterson Institute colleagues suggests that full global liberalization would ultimately increase US GDP by about 4.1 percent, about $570 billion based on US national income in 2007.”
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim
International Competition Policy and the WTO
Peterson Institute – Paper – May 2008
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=930
“A multilateral agreement on competition policy is highly desirable given the covert growth of murky cartels and the boom (until the recent financial crisis) in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). However, the prospect for a World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement covering all WTO members is remote. The best prospect over the next decade (after the Doha Round is concluded or abandoned) is for a constructive agreement among a subset of WTO members that covers the interests of both developed and developing countries. Such an agreement should address issues of interest to developing countries, such as export cartels and the anticompetitive aspects of large M&A deals. It should also address issues that concern developed countries, such as concerted efforts by local producers to block the entry of new foreign firms.”
C. Fred Bergsten
World Trade at Risk
Peterson Institute for International Economics – Policy Brief - May 13, 2008 – 3 pages
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-5.pdf
“The decision by the House of Representatives on April 10 to change the rules for Congressional action on trade agreements drives a gaping hole in US trade policy and poses the gravest threat to the global trading system in decades. By rejecting long-settled procedures that prevented Congressional sidetracking of trade deals agreed by fully authorized Presidents, it instantaneously destroyed the credibility of the United States as a negotiating partner in the eyes of the rest of the world. Unless reversed soon, the House action will severely damage both the US economy and US foreign policy. It will particularly undermine the presumed goal of any new Administration in 2009 to restore our country's standing as a reliable partner in a cooperative multilateral world.”
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