FONDS SOUVERAINS

Rapport sur les fonds souverains
Ministère de l'économie, de l'industrie et de l'emploi

ECONOMIE ET DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE

Le changement climatique et l’économie
Natalia Tamirisa
On peut faire face au changement climatique sans nuire à la stabilité macroéconomique ni à la croissance, et sans imposer une charge excessive aux pays qui sont les moins en mesure de s’acquitter du coût des mesures. Si celles–ci sont bien conçues, leur coût économique devrait être gérable.
(308 kb fichier pdf)

Réchauffement climatique et agriculture
William R. Cline
Si rien n’est fait pour diminuer les émissions de carbone, la productivité agricole pourrait fortement chuter, surtout dans les pays en développement. Ces pays ont donc grand intérêt à participer activement aux programmes internationaux de réduction des émissions.
(2,000 kb fichier pdf)

Le prix du changement climatique
Benjamin Jones, Michael Keen et Jon Strand
Les pouvoirs publics doivent encourager les ménages et les entreprises à combattre le changement climatique et à s’y adapter. Le rôle des instruments budgétaires est indispensable pour atténuer le changement climatique et s’y adapter.
(240 kb fichier pdf)

L’écologisation des marchés
Paul Mills
Comment les marchés financiers réagiront-ils aux initiatives en matière de lutte contre le changement climatique et comment peuvent-ils au mieux promouvoir l’atténuation et l’adaptation? La réponse à ces questions sera cruciale pour établir un plan d’action et réduire son coût au minimum.
(340 kb fichier pdf)

Hausse des températures, hausse des risques
Mohan Munasinghe
Bien que le changement climatique et le développement durable soient des problèmes complexes et liés entre eux qui constituent un défi à relever par l’humanité, on pourrait les résoudre ensemble en intégrant les mesures d’adaptation et d’atténuation dans le cadre plus général des stratégies de développement durable.
(308 kb fichier pdf)

Voir ECOLOGIE

LA CRISE FINANCIERE, VUE PAR LE FMI

A Crisis of Confidence... and a lot more Laura Kodres What can be done to prevent future crises like the one that began in the U.S. subprime mortgage market? This article argues that the source of the problem lies in incentives. But the remedies may be difficult to implement because faulty incentives are entrenched in the marketplace and in regulatory and supervisory systems. (432 kb, pdf file) Outbreak: U.S. Subprime Contagion Randall Dodd and Paul Mills The authors examine the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and the reasons for its large spillover effects. They suggest policies to deal with such problems should aim to moderate leverage, improve liquidity management, foster market liquidity, promote due diligence, and increase transparency in the public availability of price and trading information. (276 kb, pdf file) Point of View: Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis Khor Hoe Ee and Kee Rui Xiong The authors, from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, examine the current crisis through the lens of the financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997. They discuss lessons industrial countries can take from the Asian crisis and lessons Asian countries can learn from the subprime crisis. They also explore the reasons for Asia's resilience, so far, to the current crisis. (328 kb, pdf file) Banking on More Capital Jaime Caruana and Aditya Narain One reason that banks succumbed to the subprime crisis is that they did not hold adequate amounts of capital. Against that background, the authors discuss the Basel II New Capital Adequacy Framework, suggesting that it does not address all the regulatory issues that arose from the crisis but that it does, nonetheless, have a key role to play. (300 kb, pdf file) A Crisis of Confidence... and a lot more Laura Kodres What can be done to prevent future crises like the one that began in the U.S. subprime mortgage market? This article argues that the source of the problem lies in incentives. But the remedies may be difficult to implement because faulty incentives are entrenched in the marketplace and in regulatory and supervisory systems. (432 kb, pdf file) Outbreak: U.S. Subprime Contagion Randall Dodd and Paul Mills The authors examine the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and the reasons for its large spillover effects. They suggest policies to deal with such problems should aim to moderate leverage, improve liquidity management, foster market liquidity, promote due diligence, and increase transparency in the public availability of price and trading information. (276 kb, pdf file) Point of View: Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis Khor Hoe Ee and Kee Rui Xiong The authors, from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, examine the current crisis through the lens of the financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997. They discuss lessons industrial countries can take from the Asian crisis and lessons Asian countries can learn from the subprime crisis. They also explore the reasons for Asia's resilience, so far, to the current crisis. (328 kb, pdf file) Banking on More Capital Jaime Caruana and Aditya Narain One reason that banks succumbed to the subprime crisis is that they did not hold adequate amounts of capital. Against that background, the authors discuss the Basel II New Capital Adequacy Framework, suggesting that it does not address all the regulatory issues that arose from the crisis but that it does, nonetheless, have a key role to play. (300 kb, pdf file) Point of View: Will Basel II Help Prevent Crises or Worsen Them? Jesús Saurina and Avinash D. Persaud The authors offer opposing views on whether the Basel II capital adequacy guidelines are too procyclical—that is, too lax on capital requirements during good times and too strict when conditions deteriorate. (172 kb, pdf file) VOIR : La crise 2007-2008

Point of View: Will Basel II Help Prevent Crises or Worsen Them? Jesús Saurina and Avinash D. Persaud The authors offer opposing views on whether the Basel II capital adequacy guidelines are too procyclical—that is, too lax on capital requirements during good times and too strict when conditions deteriorate. (172 kb, pdf file)

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 2008

MONETARY POLICY

Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies

U.S. Department of the Treasury - May 2008 – 39 pages

http://www.treasury.gov/offices/international-affairs/economic-exchange-rates/052008_report.pdf

The report reviews developments in international economic and exchange rate policies, focusing on the second half of 2007. However, where pertinent and when available, data through mid-April 2008 are included and discussed. The report also includes an appendix updating issues related to Sovereign Wealth Funds. Exports and imports of goods and services to and from the countries whose economies and currencies are discussed accounted for about 85 percent of total U.S. trade in 2007.

FINANCE

Martin Neil Baily, Douglas W. Elmendorf and Robert E. Litan

The Great Credit Squeeze: How It Happened, How to Prevent Another

The Brookings Institution – Paper - May 16, 2008 – 163 pages

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/0516_credit_squeeze/0516_credit_squeeze.pdf

Roundtable discussion - http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/0516_credit.aspx

“The experience of the U.S. financial system and economy during the past year vividly demonstrate the need for reform of our financial regulation and supervision. Financial markets will always experience swings between confidence and fear; between optimism and pessimism. However, effective regulation and supervision can reduce the frequency, the magnitude, and the broader consequences of these swings. […]In the report, the authors examine the origins of the current crisis and recommend specific policy responses to address both the immediate and long-term challenges.”

The Subprime Mortgage Market: National and Twelfth District Developments

FRB San Francisco - 2007 Annual Report – 12 pages

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/annual/2007/subprime.pdf

“Learn about the factors that led to the subprime mortgage crisis, the impact of these developments on the nation and the Twelfth District, and "lessons learned" that may contribute to financial market stability going forward. Find out about the major foreclosure prevention initiative the Community Development department launched in 2007 to understand the impact of the crisis on low- and moderate-income borrowers and neighborhoods and help homeowners in hard-hit communities avoid foreclosure.”

The U.S. Housing Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis: Housing and Housing-Related Finance

Joint Economic Committee – Study – May 2008 - 30 pages

http://www.house.gov/jec/news/Housing%20Bubble%20study.pdf

“A combination of government policy errors and private sector miscalculations and mistakes underlie the inflation and deflation of the housing bubble… The study examines how a combination of government policies fostered a credit expansion that fueled a huge bubble in the U.S. housing market, and how the popping of this bubble destabilized the international financial system.”

Alex J. Pollock

Regulatory Implications of the Housing and Mortgage Bubble and Bust

United States Congress - Joint Economic Committee - Testimony – May 14, 2008 – 8 pages

http://www.house.gov/jec/hearings/testimony/110/5-14-08/Pollock%20Testimony.pdf

“The severe housing and mortgage bust we are experiencing can best be understood as the inevitable deflation of a classic asset bubble. Historically speaking, why do we keep having these financial adventures, no matter what our technological and theoretical progress or regulatory reorganizations? Why is “a prudent banker one who goes broke when everybody else goes broke”? This witty line of Keynes points us to the eternal human elements behind the credit overexpansion that our sophisticated, globalized, computerized, and leveraged markets produced between 2003 and 2006, the subsequent debt panics of 2007 and 2008, and the continuing bust.”

Paul Volcker

Financial Crisis

U.S. Congress - Joint Economic Committee - Testimony – May 14, 2008 – 5 pages

http://www.house.gov/jec/hearings/testimony/110/5-14-08/Volcker%20Testimony.pdf

“I appreciate the opportunity to discuss informally some implications of the systemic risks in the financial system as revealed in the current crisis. This statement will simply point out some of the more important and unresolved issues as I see them. The complications are evident. There are no quick and facile answers. Your deliberations can, however, help lay the groundwork for legislation that will, I believe, be necessary, if not now in the midst of crisis and an election campaign, then in 2009.”

Turmoil and Innovation: A Look at Financial Markets in 2007

FRB Chicago - 2007 Annual Report – April 2008

http://www.chicagofed.org/about_the_fed/2007_annual_report.cfm

“Financial markets have been characterized by significant turmoil since the summer of 2007. Even as this annual report went to press in April of 2008, credit conditions remained tight, and market volatility continued to be high. These market disruptions raise many issues, but one of particular importance to the Federal Reserve System is the appropriate role of public policy in response. As the premier public policy institution for addressing financial stability issues in the U.S., the Fed must understand the underlying causes of financial disruption in order to design an appropriate policy response.”

Liz Laderman

Small Business Lending and Bank Competition

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – Economic Letter - May 9, 2008 – 4 pages

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-15.pdf

“The question of how much bank financing small businesses are able to obtain is of real importance. Indeed, a regard for the volume of lending helps motivate enforcement of antitrust laws in banking. The Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve, which share responsibility for considering the effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on competition in local banking markets, do so, in part, because theory says that more competition generates more lending. The author examines what the data say about the relationship between the degree of competition in small business lending in local geographic banking markets and the total volume of small business lending in those markets.”

Industrial Loan Companies: Commercial businesses face head-on opposition to entering the banking sector

FRB Kansas - Article – Ten - Spring 2008 – 8 pages

http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/TEN/pdf/spring2008/ILCs.pdf

“Current law leaves ILCs as the only option for businesses like Wal-Mart and Home Depot to open a bank, but this possibility causes uproar.”

Edwin M. Truman

The Rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Impacts on US Foreign Policy and Economic Interests

The Brookings Institution - Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs - May 21, 2008 – 14 pages

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/truman0508.pdf

“Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) pose the greatest risks to the citizens of the countries whose governments have accumulated the large stocks of international assets, but authorities in the United States and other countries where those assets are invested also have legitimate concerns about how these funds will be managed.[…] The author concludes that though the potential impacts are disquieting, SWFs do not pose a significant new threat to US foreign policy, national security, and economic interests.”

James K. Jackson

Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: An Economic Analysis

Congressional Research Service - Library of Congress – Report - Web posted May 20, 2008 – 6 pages

http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RS21857_20080319.pdf

“Foreign direct investment in the United States declined sharply after 2000, when a record $300 billion was invested in U.S. businesses and real estate. In 2006, according to Department of Commerce data, foreigners invested $184 billion. Foreign direct investments are highly sought after by many State and local governments that are struggling to create additional jobs in their regions. While some in Congress encourage such investment to offset the perceived negative economic effects of U.S. firms investing abroad, others are concerned about foreign acquisitions of U.S. firms that are considered essential to U.S. national and economic security.”

VOIR TABLE DE LA FINANCE

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Trade Enforcement Act of 2007

Senate Committee on Finance – Hearing – May 22, 2008

http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/hearing052208.htm

“The administration has many tools to enforce trade agreements and trade remedy laws… But having these rules on the books is not enough. The Government needs to enforce them… USTR can and should do more. And Congress can help USTR to do more by updating its trade enforcement tools. Many of the trade enforcement tools that USTR uses today were created decades ago. Congress created them to address different problems, in a very different world.”

Daniella Markheim

Free Trade Agreements: Promoting Prosperity in 2008

The Heritage Foundation – Paper - May 2, 2008 – 7 pages

http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/upload/bg_2132.pdf

“Freer trade allows more goods and services to reach American consumers at lower prices, giving families more income to save or to spend on other goods and services.[…] This year, Congress has a real opportunity to resist partisanship and help America and the world reap the rewards of free trade policies. It is essential that law­makers separate myth from fact and assess upcoming trade initiatives objectively—not through the lens of campaign rhetoric. Armed with the facts, they can then help to ensure that prosperity in the U.S. and around the world has a real chance to grow and thrive, both this year and in the years to come.”

Raymond J. Ahearn

U.S.-French Commercial Ties

Congressional Research Service - Library of Congress – Report - Web posted May 14, 2008 – 16 pages

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32459.pdf

“U.S. commercial ties with France are extensive, mutually profitable, and growing. With over $1.2 billion in commercial transactions taking place between the two countries every day of the year, each country has an increasingly large stake in the health and openness of the other’s economy. France is the 9th largest merchandise trading partner for the United States and the United States is France’s largest trading partner outside the European Union. […] While some public opinion polls at the time suggested support for economic boycotts as a way of expressing opposition to France’s position on Iraq, an economic backlash appears not to have materialized. Effective boycotts would jeopardize thousands of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.”

The Economic and National Security Implications of the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement

The Brookings Institution – Event Transcript - May 12, 2008 – 38 pages

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0512_columbiafta/20080512_colombia.pdf

“International trade has grown rapidly in recent decades. Most countries impose tariffs on imports, which protect domestic industries from overseas competition but distort world markets. With jobs and wages under pressure, both global trade talks and bilateral trade agreements have become harder and harder to negotiate. Although a free-trade deal has been negotiated by the United States and Colombia, it still awaits congressional approval. […] On May 12, the Brookings Institution hosted Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Senator Kit Bond (R-Mo.) for a discussion of the economic and national security implications of the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement. ”

U.S.-China Trade: USTR's China Compliance Reports and Plans Could Be Improved

GAO – Report - April 14, 2008 – 64 pages

http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-405

“GAO was asked to (1) evaluate USTR’s annual China trade compliance reports to Congress and the degree to which they present information necessary to fully understand China’s compliance situation and (2) examine the status of the plans presented in USTR’s February 2006 top-to-bottom report. GAO systematically analyzed the contents of USTR’s compliance reports from 2002 to 2007 and reviewed information on the status of agencies’ monitoring and enforcement activities.”

Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Answering the Critics: Why Large American Gains from Globalization Are Plausible Peterson Institute – Paper – May 2008

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/print.cfm?doc=pub&ResearchID=929

“Hufbauer responds to criticisms of Dani Rodrik and L. Josh Bivens that the Peterson Institute has exaggerated the benefits of globalization in raising US household income and GDP. The estimate published by Hufbauer and his Peterson Institute colleagues suggests that full global liberalization would ultimately increase US GDP by about 4.1 percent, about $570 billion based on US national income in 2007.”

Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim

International Competition Policy and the WTO

Peterson Institute – Paper – May 2008

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=930

“A multilateral agreement on competition policy is highly desirable given the covert growth of murky cartels and the boom (until the recent financial crisis) in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). However, the prospect for a World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement covering all WTO members is remote. The best prospect over the next decade (after the Doha Round is concluded or abandoned) is for a constructive agreement among a subset of WTO members that covers the interests of both developed and developing countries. Such an agreement should address issues of interest to developing countries, such as export cartels and the anticompetitive aspects of large M&A deals. It should also address issues that concern developed countries, such as concerted efforts by local producers to block the entry of new foreign firms.”

C. Fred Bergsten

World Trade at Risk

Peterson Institute for International Economics – Policy Brief - May 13, 2008 – 3 pages

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-5.pdf

“The decision by the House of Representatives on April 10 to change the rules for Congressional action on trade agreements drives a gaping hole in US trade policy and poses the gravest threat to the global trading system in decades. By rejecting long-settled procedures that prevented Congressional sidetracking of trade deals agreed by fully authorized Presidents, it instantaneously destroyed the credibility of the United States as a negotiating partner in the eyes of the rest of the world. Unless reversed soon, the House action will severely damage both the US economy and US foreign policy. It will particularly undermine the presumed goal of any new Administration in 2009 to restore our country's standing as a reliable partner in a cooperative multilateral world.”

Voir TABLE DU COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL

ECONOMIE AMERICAINE

L'ECONOMIE NOUS COUTE VRAIMENT TRES CHER

L'ECONOMIE NOUS COUTE VRAIMENT TRES CHER

Voir TABLE DE L'ECONOMIE

A- L'Economie est peu évaluée:

Dans la série des réformes d'inspiration libérale, toutes les grandes fonctions sociales sont remises en question au regard des critères économiques de coût et rentabilité. Tout y passe ou tout peut y passer: l'école, la recherche, la santé, la justice, la défense, le lien social , l'allongement de la vie, voire le besoin d'eau et d'air pur, l'amour et la manipulation de nos gênes...

Tout, sauf précisément l'économie dont la fonction est d'assurer la production des biens et services nécessaires à la survie et au bien-être de la collectivité.. Cette fonction n'est certes pas négligeable mais subordonnée , précisément à la survie et au bien-être de la collectivité.

Il y a plusieurs raisons pour lesquelles l'économie est restée hors d'une évaluation objective:

1°) l'importance sociale de l'univers économique qui concerne une masse de chefs d'entreprises et travailleurs déterminants dans le débat politique (électoral?) et la quasi totalité de la population concernée par le besoin de consommer et par une dépendance aux produits proposés par l'économie telle qu'elle fonctionne

2°) le postulat absurde selon lequel l'économie est seule à produire une valeur qui est ensuite prélevée et redistribuée par les groupes sociaux responsables des autres fonctions sociales .

En réalité l'entreprise ne produit pas de la valeur mais des produits ou services dont la valeur ne peut exister que par l'acte d'achat . Sans achat, en l'absence d'utilité reconnue ou réelle, le produit n'est pas une valeur mais un coût, aggravé par les coûts d'élimination de déchets, et comptabilisable du seul point de vue des coûts, comme une création artistique ou un simple service public.

La valeur dépend bien sûr des préférences du consommateur mais aussi du pouvoir d'achar de ce dernier. Ceci pourrait faire de la distribution de revenus la seule fonction économique créant de la valeur effective.Et les revenus de l'activité économique (salaires et profits) constituent , avant ou après redistribution, une partie importante des revenus créateurs de valeur.

Du moins en économie réelle mais pas en économie financière. Le crédit d'une part (ressources d'épargne multipliées par les coefficients bancaires) et la titrisation des actifs sont des distributeurs de valeur dont le montant , totalement arbitraire, dépasse de plusieurs dizaines de fois le montant de l'épargne disponible , des ressources des Banques centrales et même du Produit National Brut .C'est dire que les ressources financières disponibles pour créer de la valeur et réaliser des achats solvables sont arbitrairement dissociées de l'utilité du travail d'entreprise. Elles obéissent à des critères sans commune mesure avec ceux de l'économie réelle (par exemple la « norme » des rendements attendus du capital est fixée à 14% dans des économies où le PNB ne croit que de 2 ou 3% par an)

3°) deuxième postulat : la concurrence et le marché et sont préférables à toute autre méthode d'évaluation.

L'argument de la concurrence prête à sourire: une entreprise sanctionnée par la concurrence est généralement une entreprise qui n'a pas su s'entendre avec ses concurrents ou ses fournisseurs. Quand elle est éliminée par la concurrence, ses actifs sont soit détruits (aux frais de la collectivité) soit recyclés dans le circuit économique au profit d'un concurrent ...qui renforce sa capacité de monopole.

La clientèle serait un meilleur juge de la satisfaction finale si la publicité , très généreusement défiscalisée, se limitait à une simple information technique sur les produits. Et si elle n'avait pas pris, depuis longtemps, les aspects d'un bombardement permanent qui conditionne les consommateurs ou les prescripteurs d'achat . On connait la célèbre déclaration du président de TF1 sur la capture du cerveau humain. Depuis peu une chaine de TV plonge les bébés dans un bain visuel et sonore qui prépare leurs futurs comportements d'acheteur . On connait aussi les débordements du maketing pour adolescents (marques, jeux en ligne etc...)

Aucune fonction sociale autre que l'économie marchande ne dispose d'autant de moyens (d'origine publique puisque déduits de la capacité fiscale) de former ou déformer le marché par le financement de la presse et de l'audio visuel ou par des moyens dits de « lobbying » auprès du grand public et des divers décideurs .Contrairement à ce qu'on s'imagine, la France n'est pas la plus honorablement classée dans la liste des pays corrupteurs ou corrompus établie par Transparency International.

• Et depuis longtemps on incorpore dans les produits des matières stimulantes (sel, sucre, graisses, peut-être bientôt des psychotropes) qui agissent, peut-être par l'euphorie, sur le Bonheur National Brut mais aussi sur les chiffres d'affaires et donc le Produit National Brut

B- L'économie pourrait être réévaluée:

1°) d'abord par application de ses propres critères d'efficience (coûts, recettes;, profits...).Le secteur économique est beaucoup moins économe qu'il le dit des ressources qui lui sont confiées par la société des actionnaires, des banquiers et des consommateurs

• les dépenses ne sont pas toujours très bien contrôlées par les dirigeants, les actionnaires, les employés et.. plus généralement les « stakeholders ». Les rémunérations exorbitantes, les frais généraux confortables, les détournements de fonds, les parachutes dorés après échec, les dépenses publicitaires qui soutiennent des objectifs pas forcément recommandables , les fonds d'organismes solidaires permettant de « fluidifier les relations sociales"...tout ceci laisse à penser qu'un contrôle plus rigoureux des comptes d'entreprise fournirait bien du grain à moudre en faveur du pouvoir d'achat et des investissements d'avenir...

• d'autant plus que , même honnête et austère, un dirigeant peut se tromper dans sa stratégie (nombreux exemples dans le BTP, les medias, l'ingénierie etc...) ou dans ses tactiques (trader de la Générale...). Il y a toujours un payeur en dernier ressort: généralement l'Etat ou la Banque centrale ou les clients, ou tout le monde à la fois

  - Les rivalités personnelles entre patrons n'ont rien à envier aux querelles politiciennes. Une partie des stratégies des entreprises ne consiste pas à fournir de meilleurs produits et services mais à déplacer un concurrent, ce qui est une destruction de valeur.

• la prise en charge des économies et des economies externes est assez arbitraire.

• D'autres formes d'entreprise (paternalisme, communisme) , sans doute moins efficaces au point de vue de l'économie de marché , pratiquaient une conception différente de la répartition du travail social.Dans les économies industrialisées, c'est l'impôt qui répartit différemment les taches.Rappelons qu'en France seule une entreprise sur deux paye des impôts . L'evasion fiscale (fraude ou evasion) est évaluée à 45 milliards d'euros , dont l'essentiel en provenance des entreprises.

• L'entreprise ne couvre pas directement les frais de services dont elle bénéficie: formation amont des employés, infrastructures de transports, recherche scientifique, sécurité des territoires etc...

• L'entreprise ne couvre pas directement les dommages suscités par son activité : licenciements collectifs, mises à la retraite anticipée, pollutions et accidents technologiques

• Bien des entreprises , notamment dans les périodes de lancement ou de crise, ou des secteurs entiers (agriculteurs, transports...) reçoivent des aides financières publiques par subvention ou exonération, garantie de prix , protection juridique ou douanière, monopole de fait etc...

2°) L'évaluation en fonction des critères généraux de satisfaction supposerait

• dans un premier temps d'apprécier l'économie avec les yeux des responsables ou supporters des autres grandes fonctions sociales ( à condition que par équité, ils disposent de la même manne publicitaire que l'entreprise) ,

• dans un deuxième temps de combiner le tout dans un système d'évaluation comparée, du type « Revision generale des politiques publiques », probablement utopique au plan scientifique et confié, en attendant mieux, à la sagesse des majorités électorales (?) .

• Peut-être faut-il attendre des progrès de la mission confiée au Prix Nobel d'Economie, Joseph Stiglitz , sur la mesure du Bonheur National Brut. En l'état actuel, le Produit National Brut (somme des « valeurs ajoutées » ) incorpore des « valeurs « qui sont en fait des régressions (les accidents de la route et les divorces créent du Produit National Brut alors que les services publics (école, hopitaux, défense...)sont comptablisés comme centres de côuts non producteurs de valeur

• La prise en compte de valeurs immatérielles ( Le Bien être, le Bonheur...) et les précautions necessaires pour un avenir proche (climat, destruction de ressources naturelles, pollutions, épidémies, mutations génétiques...) ne sont pas incorporées dans les decisions publiques, a fortiori dans celles de la sphère économique qui dispose encore de moyens puissants pour détourner l'attention de ce qui n'est pas du chiffre d'affaires.

Donc , pour longtemps encore, l'économuie telle que nous la pratiquons, restera un luxe de pays riche, dépensier et frivole.

POINTS DE VUE AMERICAINS SUR LA CRISE ECONOMIQUE ET FINANCIERE

Source: PUBLIC AFFAIRS - American Embassy
Sylvie VACHERET Tel: 01 43 12 29 28 E Mail: vacheretsr@state.gov

Voir aussi Crise 2007-2008

et Conjoncture economique US debut 2008

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Taking Responsible Action to Keep Our Economy Growing

White House - Fact Sheet - March 7, 2008

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/03/20080307.html

“The U.S. economy is structurally sound for the long term, but growth has slowed… The President and his Administration are taking action to address economic uncertainties and to keep our economy growing.”

Daniel Griswold

Worried about a Recession? Don’t Blame Free Trade

Cato Institute - Free Trade Bulletin No. 34 - March 31, 2008

http://www.freetrade.org/node/856

“If the past is any guide, politicians on the campaign trail will be tempted to blame trade and globalization for the passing pain of the business cycle. Rising unemployment and falling output can provide fertile ground for attacks on imports and foreign investment by U.S. multinational companies. But an analysis of previous recessions and expansions shows that international trade and investment are not to blame for downturns in the economy and may in fact be moderating the business cycle.”

Addressing the Foreclosure Crisis: A Hamilton Project Policy Discussion

The Brookings Institution - Discussion - March 14, 2008 – 72 pages

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0314_mortgage/20080314_mortgage.pdf

With house prices down, many Americans now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – a problem referred to as “negative equity.” In addition, interest rate resets on select subprime and traditional loans will result in even higher mortgage payments for many families already struggling to make ends meet. The results of these conditions are already apparent, with foreclosures in January 2008 up 57 percent from the year before. Without new and effective public policy, some experts project that 2 million families will lose their homes during the next two years – an outcome that would hurt communities while causing broader collateral damage for the economy, jobs and wages.

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MONETARY POLICY

Kevin Hassett

How the Fed Works

The American – September/October 2007 issue

http://www.american.com/archive/2007/september-october-magazine-contents/how-the-fed-works

Kevin Hassett, a former Fed economist, offers an inside look at how America’s central bankers operate.

Charles I. Plosser

The Benefits of Systematic Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Report - March 3, 2008 – 14 pages

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publicaffairs/speeches/plosser/2008/03-03-08_natl-assn-business-economics.pdf

“The benefits of operating in an environment with the transparency afforded by simple rules is that it gives monetary policymakers the ability to anchor expectations and affords them the opportunity to temporarily deviate from the simple rules in extraordinary circumstances without eroding central bank credibility.”

Todd E. Clark and Taisuke Nakata

Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review – First Quarter 2008 – 34 pages

http://www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q08Clark.pdf

“From 1975 to 1980, inflation in core (nonfood and nonenergy) consumer prices rose sharply as crude oil prices more than tripled. Yet, as crude oil prices quadrupled from late 2001 to 2007, core consumer price inflation remained essentially flat. Some observers have attributed the stability of consumer price inflation in the more recent episode to the influence of long-term inflation expectations. While inflation expectations rose significantly in the second half of the 1970s, they remained largely unchanged from 2001 through 2007. The increased stability of inflation and long-term expectations raises the possibility that the behavior of both variables has fundamentally changed.”

Vincent R. Reinhart, Carmen M. Reinhart

Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence

National Bureau of Economic Research – Research paper - March 2008 - 25 pages

http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27668,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

“Over the past decade, policymakers in many emerging market economies have opted to limit fluctuations of the value of their domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. A simple interest-parity relationship is used to identify the potential sources of upward pressure on the value of a foreign exchange rate and to explain the policy options to damp them. The paper then documents the extent to which the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been sterilized and provides a comprehensive list of major policy initiatives related to stemming forces that would otherwise appreciate the exchange rate in over one hundred countries.”

LawrenceH. White

As Good As Gold?

Cato Institute – Cato Policy Report - March/April 2008 - 4 pages

http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/v30n2/cpr30n2-1.pdf

The subprime crisis and the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar have raised questions about the performance of the Federal Reserve Board. One [presidential] candidate has proposed ending the post-1971 experiment with an unanchored fiat dollar issued by the Federal Reserve and returning to a gold standard with private money issue. Critics have raised a number of theoretical and historical objections to the gold standard.. In light of the historical evidence the gold standard is not a crazy idea.

Richard H. Timberlake

Gold Standards and the Real Bills Doctrine in U.S. Monetary Policy

The Independent Review - Winter 2007 – 30 pages

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_11_03_01_timberlake.pdf

Discounting the differences between the self-regulating classical gold standard that prevailed before World War I and the government-managed gold-exchange standard that replaced it, many writers have erroneously blamed “the gold standard” for the inability of Federal Reserve Board policymakers to implement countercyclical policies in 1929–33 and thus to prevent the Great Depression. Worse, they have failed to identify the true culprit in the monetary system of that era—the fallacious real bills doctrine, which guided Fed policy.

Chinese FX Interventions Caused International Imbalances, Contributed to U.S. Housing Bubble

Joint Economic Committee – Study – March 2008 – 13 pages

http://www.house.gov/jec/studies/2008/Chinese%20FX%20Interventions%20Caused%20International%20Imbalances%20Contributed%20to%20U%20S%20%20Housing%20Bubble%20(2).pdf

“Since 2000, the PRC’s exchange rate policy and the shadow policies of other Asian governments slowed the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and lowered interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve. By distorting market price signals, these policies have exacerbated a number of economic problems not only in the United States but also around the world.”

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FINANCE

Policy Statement on Financial Market Developments

The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets – March 2008 – 22 pages

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/pwgpolicystatemktturmoil_03122008.pdf

“Last August, you called on the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) to review the underlying causes of developing financial market tunnoil.. Our objectives which we believe these recommendations will achieve, are improved transparency and disclosure, better risk awareness and management, and stronger oversight. Collectively, these recommendations will mitigate systemic risk, help restore investor confidence, and facilitate economic growth.”

Thomas M. Hoenig

Maintaining Stability in a Changing Financial System: Some Lessons Relearned Again?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review – First Quarter 2008 – 12 pages

http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/1q08Hoenig.pdf

“In a speech made before the High Level Meeting on Regulatory Capital and Issues in Financial Stability in Sydney, Australia, last November, Mr. Hoenig used the recent subprime mortgage crisis to motivate a broader discussion of how we can maintain financial stability in a changing financial system. While the recent crisis has revealed some new and unexpected vulnerabilities in the financial system, it has also highlighted the need to remember some of the lessons we have learned from past crises.”

William Poole

Financial Innovation: Engine of Growth or Source of Instability?

The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis - Report - March 6, 2008

http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2008/03_06_08.html

“Financial innovation, like innovation in other industries, is part of the dynamic process of “creative destruction” that drives market economies forward and raises living standards. My message today is that we should not fear financial innovation, but that we must be careful, both in designing our public policies and in making our personal financial decisions, to understand the lessons of the recent subprime mortgage turmoil and of past innovations that led to instability.”

Adam B. Ashcraft and Til Schuermann

Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit

Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Report - March, 2008 – 82 pages

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr318.pdf

The authors provide an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions that arise. Ashcraft and Schuermann discuss the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down. They continue with a complete picture of the subprime borrower and the subprime loan, discussing both predatory borrowing and predatory lending. The authors present the key structural features of a typical subprime securitization, document how rating agencies assign credit ratings to mortgage-backed securities, and outline how these agencies monitor the performance of mortgage pools over time. Throughout the paper, they draw upon the example of a mortgage pool securitized by New Century Financial during 2006.

The State of the Banking Industry

U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs - Hearing - March 4, 2008

http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=3de28452-e2aa-416b-aab9-89a6a2f6a30a

“While many experts have commented on the disintermediation of banks within the financial system, we have seen from the subprime crisis, banks remain central players. Even though many banks moved from portfolio lending to the ‘originate-to-distribute’ model, they still have been significantly affected by the subprime mess.”

Governor Randall S. Kroszner

The Importance of Fundamentals in Risk Management

Federal Reserve Board – Remarks at the American Bankers Association - March 11, 2008

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20080311a.htm

“The focus of my remarks today--the importance of fundamentals in risk management--should still resonate with all of you, whether you are part of a large global bank or a smaller community bank. Unfortunately, recent market events have shown us that banking institutions still face some risk management challenges, including a need to refocus on some key fundamentals. The good news, however, is that we also have many examples of sound risk management practices during the recent disruptions.”

Elizabeth S. Laderman

The Quantity and Character of Out-of-Market Small Business Lending

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic Review 2008 – 8p

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/2008/er31-39.pdf

“Most small business lending from banks originates with institutions that have a local branch, but “out-of-market” lending does not. Supporting the view that proximity is conducive to lending, I find that only about 10 percent of small business lending is from banks with no branch in the local market. About half of this appears to be from banks with a branch in the same state, further supporting the role of proximity, while, at the same time, supporting the current regulatory practice of considering out-of-market loans when assessing local competitive conditions. I also find that out-of-market and in-market loans are of similar average size and are about equally likely to be secured by commercial real estate.”