US MONETARY POLICY

Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Report: http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/fullreport071608.pdf
House Financial Services Committee – Hearing – July 16, 2008
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/hr071608.shtml

The committee held its semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins hearing to examine the conduct of monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy on Wednesday, July 16th. The committee received the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.


Charles I. Plosser
Perspectives on the Economy, Inflation, and Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia – Remarks - July 22, 2008
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publicaffairs/speeches/plosser/2008/07-22-08_philadelphia-business-journal.cfm

“Today, I want to share my thoughts about the economy and the financial markets. In doing so, I will comment briefly on how our economy got here and how I think it is likely to evolve over the next 18 months or so. I also want to devote part of my time to discussing my views about inflation and inflationary expectations. In particular, I want to explain why it is so important that inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, and why I believe that is key to keeping inflation itself under control.”


Monetary Policy and Asset Markets: Conference Summary FRB San Francisco - Economic Letter – July 11, 2008 – 4 pages
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-21.pdf

“This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Monetary Policy and Asset Markets" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on February 22, 2008. The papers are available online.”


Jian Wang Why Are Exchange Rates So Difficult to Predict? Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Economic Letter - June 2008
http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2008/el0806.html

“The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001–02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the Canadian dollar and 30 percent against the British pound. These steep, prolonged depreciations have brought a new urgency to understanding the factors that move exchange rates. Some way of forecasting them would allow businesses, investors and others to make better, more-informed decisions. Unfortunately, exchange rates are very difficult, if not impossible, to predict—at least over short to medium time horizons.”


William R. Cline and John Williamson New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-7.pdf

The study concludes that the dollar is still significantly overvalued against a number of Asian currencies, most prominently the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen. The renminbi needs to rise by about 30 percent against the dollar and the yen should strengthen by about 20 percent. A number of other Asian currencies also need to appreciate substantially. The study also concludes that the euro and the pound are now overvalued on average.


C. Randall Henning The Peterson Institute – Book - June 2008
Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy

http://bookstore.petersoninstitute.org/book-store/4198.html

“The US Congress long ago delegated authority over exchange rate policy to the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. But the heat of the international trade and monetary conflicts of the mid-1980s prompted Congress to involve itself more deeply in exchange rate policy than it had before and more deeply than the legislatures of most of the other key currency countries. The Exchange Rates and International Economic Policy Coordination Act of 1988 (the 1988 Act, for short), an important component of the large omnibus trade act of that year, mandated Treasury to submit reports on international economic and exchange rate policies to Congress and the secretary to testify at follow-up hearings if asked to do so by the banking committees of the House and Senate.”
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