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vendredi 15 août 2008

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS

  • INTERNATIONAL TRADE


The Year in Trade 2007

U.S. International Trade Commission - Web posted August 6, 2008 – 40 pages

http://hotdocs.usitc.gov/docs/pubs/332/pub4026.pdf

The report provides a practical review of U.S. international trade laws and actions in 2007, a summary of the operation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and an overview of U.S. free trade agreements and negotiations and of U.S. bilateral trade relations with major trading partners. It also includes complete listings of antidumping, countervailing duty, safeguard, intellectual property rights infringement, and section 301 cases undertaken by the U.S. government in 2007.

The Future of U.S. Trade Policy: Perspectives from Former U.S. Trade Representatives

Senate Committee on Finance – Hearing – July 29, 2008

http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/hearing072908.htm


“We have with us today a wealth of past experience. We have before us four former U.S.

Trade Representatives who together led this country’s trade policy through the first days

of the technological revolution to the global economy of today. We cannot forget their

past contributions. And their experience is a sure guide to the future.”

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou et al.

The Buffett Plan for Reducing the Trade Deficit

Levy Economics Institute, Bard College – Paper - July 2008 – 40 pages

http://www.levy.org/pubs/wp_538.pdf

The paper examines a plan proposed by Warren Buffett, in which importers would be required to obtain certificates proportional to the amount of non-oil goods and possibly also services they brought into the country. These certificates would be granted to firms that exported goods. Exporting firms could then sell certificates to importing firms on an organized market. Starting from a relatively neutral projection of all major variables for the U.S. economy, the report estimates that the plan would raise the price of imports by approximately 9 percent, quickly reducing the current account deficit to about 2 percent of GDP. The possible instability in the price of certificates and retaliation by U.S. trade partners are included in the paper.


How Changes in the Value of the Chinese Currency Affect U.S. Imports

Congressional Budget Office - July 2008 – 24 pages

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/95xx/doc9506/07-17-ChinaTrade.pdf

Rapid growth in imports of merchandise from the People’s Republic of China over the past decade has posed a challenge for competing U.S. manufacturers. Some observers believe that the Chinese government has contributed to growth in U.S. imports by maintaining an undervalued currency, and there have been calls for China to revalue its currency, the renminbi, that is, to raise its value (or allow it to rise) relative to the dollar as a way to level the playing field for U.S. manufacturers.

Jeffrey Schott

The Future of the Multilateral Trading System in a Multi-Polar World

The Peterson Institute – Study – 2008 – 22 pages

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/schott0608.pdf

“This paper assesses the future of the world trading system in the face of diminishing returns from current multilateral trade negotiations and the proliferation of bilateral and regional trade agreements (RTAs). It traces the evolution of the postwar trading regime from the early decades of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that were dominated by the United States and the European Communities to the new World Trade Organization (WTO) in which developing countries have begun to play a more important role, especially in the current Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs).”

  • INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

David M. Marchick and Matthew J. Slaughter

Global FDI Policy: Correcting a Protectionist Drift

Council on Foreign Relations - Series on American Competitiveness - June 2008 – 56 pages

http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/FDl_CSR34.pdf

Foreign investment has been a principal engine of global economic growth in recent years. Both developed and developing countries have reaped substantial gains. This investment offers direct benefits to host countries, including job creation and increased tax revenue. It also helps source countries, where multinational firms are based, by allowing these firms to compete and earn profits abroad. However, foreign investment is not immune to the resistance in respect to the movement of goods and services. Calls to restrict investment are growing in many countries, with potentially significant adverse political and economic consequences. Acknowledging governments’ legitimate national security interests, the report lays out principles for host countries to follow in regulating foreign investment.

  • International Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights and American Competitiveness

Senate Committee on Finance – Hearing - July 15, 2008

http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/hearing071508.htm

Witnesses:

Andrew Lack, Chairman, SONY BMG Music Entertainment, New York, NY

Jeffrey Kindler, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Pfizer Inc., New York, NY

John Barton, George E. Osborne Professor of Law, Emeritus, Stanford Law School, Stanford, CA

J. Walter Cahill, International Vice President, International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, Moving Picture Technicians, Artists and Allied Crafts, Washington, DC

C. Fred Bergsten

A Partnership of Equals - How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge

Foreign Affairs - Article - July/August 2008

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080701faessay87404/c-fred-bergsten/a-partnership-of-equals.html

“Beijing is shirking its responsibilities to the global economy. To encourage better behavior, Washington should offer to share global economic leadership.”

Albert Keidel

  • China’s Economic Rise: Fact and Fiction

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - July 2008 – 16 pages

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb61_keidel_final.pdf

China’s economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by mid century, the report concludes. China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. The report examines China’s likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.

  • William H. Cooper Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress - Web posted June 22, 2008 – 29 pages

Russia’s Economic Performance and Policies and Their Implications for the United States

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34512.pdf

The Russian economy has grown impressively since 1999 and has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The growth has brought an improvement in the standard of living of the average Russian citizen and has brought economic stability that Russia had not experienced in at least a decade. The Russian economy is highly dependent on the production and export of oil, gas, and other natural resources. Its success has largely been the result of record-breaking world energy prices, although prudent fiscal policies have also helped to promote economic stability. While U.S. exports to Russia are still relatively small, for some producers, such as poultry, energy equipment, and technology, Russia is an important market. Russia is also an important supplier of a number of raw materials that are critical to U.S. manufacturers.



US MONETARY POLICY

Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Report: http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/fullreport071608.pdf
House Financial Services Committee – Hearing – July 16, 2008
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/hr071608.shtml

The committee held its semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins hearing to examine the conduct of monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy on Wednesday, July 16th. The committee received the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.


Charles I. Plosser
Perspectives on the Economy, Inflation, and Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia – Remarks - July 22, 2008
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publicaffairs/speeches/plosser/2008/07-22-08_philadelphia-business-journal.cfm

“Today, I want to share my thoughts about the economy and the financial markets. In doing so, I will comment briefly on how our economy got here and how I think it is likely to evolve over the next 18 months or so. I also want to devote part of my time to discussing my views about inflation and inflationary expectations. In particular, I want to explain why it is so important that inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, and why I believe that is key to keeping inflation itself under control.”


Monetary Policy and Asset Markets: Conference Summary FRB San Francisco - Economic Letter – July 11, 2008 – 4 pages
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-21.pdf

“This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Monetary Policy and Asset Markets" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on February 22, 2008. The papers are available online.”


Jian Wang Why Are Exchange Rates So Difficult to Predict? Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Economic Letter - June 2008
http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2008/el0806.html

“The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001–02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the Canadian dollar and 30 percent against the British pound. These steep, prolonged depreciations have brought a new urgency to understanding the factors that move exchange rates. Some way of forecasting them would allow businesses, investors and others to make better, more-informed decisions. Unfortunately, exchange rates are very difficult, if not impossible, to predict—at least over short to medium time horizons.”


William R. Cline and John Williamson New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-7.pdf

The study concludes that the dollar is still significantly overvalued against a number of Asian currencies, most prominently the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen. The renminbi needs to rise by about 30 percent against the dollar and the yen should strengthen by about 20 percent. A number of other Asian currencies also need to appreciate substantially. The study also concludes that the euro and the pound are now overvalued on average.


C. Randall Henning The Peterson Institute – Book - June 2008
Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy

http://bookstore.petersoninstitute.org/book-store/4198.html

“The US Congress long ago delegated authority over exchange rate policy to the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. But the heat of the international trade and monetary conflicts of the mid-1980s prompted Congress to involve itself more deeply in exchange rate policy than it had before and more deeply than the legislatures of most of the other key currency countries. The Exchange Rates and International Economic Policy Coordination Act of 1988 (the 1988 Act, for short), an important component of the large omnibus trade act of that year, mandated Treasury to submit reports on international economic and exchange rate policies to Congress and the secretary to testify at follow-up hearings if asked to do so by the banking committees of the House and Senate.”
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